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U.S. colleges and universities could see their international student enrollment decline by as many as 150,000 students this fall.
That projection — by NAFSA: Association of International Educators in conjunction with JB International — is based on recent Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS) and State Department data that suggest that visa bans and disruptions by the Trump administration could dramatically reduce new international enrollment unless issuances rebound sharply in July and August.
In the 2023-24 academic year, 1,126,690 international college students were enrolled in U.S colleges and universities, according to the Institute of International Education’s Open Doors report. That number was an all-time high, representing about 6% of all college students in the nation. It includes individuals in a category called “optional practical training,” which covers international students who legally extend their time in the country by working for up to a year before or after they complete their degree requirements.
In the years since the pandemic, when the number of international students declined by a record 15%, enrollments have increased by a total of 200,000 students. But now, continued increases appear highly unlikely.
What the decline could cost
According to the NAFSA analysis, a potential 30-40% decline in new foreign students would yield a 15% drop in overall international enrollment in the U.S. That decrease would equate to nearly $7 billion in lost revenue and more than 60,000 fewer jobs.
The new estimate includes a breakdown on the possible impact the enrollment losses would have on each state. California would stand to lose more than $1 billion from the anticipated drop, and New York’s total cost would approach that total. Several other states — including Illinois, Massachusetts, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida— would face financial losses exceeding $200 million each, according to the report.
- Suspension of Visa Interviews: Between May 27 and June 18, 2025, visa interviews were paused during the peak issuance season for students seeking to enroll in a U.S. institution. The resumption of those interviews were accompanied by a directive that U.S. consulates more closely scrutinize new applicants’ social media accounts.
- Limited Appointment Availability: The organization cited reports of limited or no appointments for international students at consulates in countries such as India, China, Nigeria, and Japan. India and China are the two countries that send the most students to the United States; Nigeria is seventh and Japan is 13th.
- Downward Visa Trends: F-1 visa issuance was down 12% from January to April 2025 and down 22% in May 2025 compared to May 2024. Although figures for June have not been published, a decrease of 80–90% is possible.
- Visa Bans: Restrictions targeting 19 countries in a June 4, 2025 presidential executive order, with another 36 rumored to be added, threaten billions in revenue.
International students are an important source of tuition revenue at American colleges. Most of them pay the full tuition price at private colleges and the out-of-state rate at public schools, allowing many schools to discount the tuition charged to a large percentage of their domestic students.
The new projection confirms the worst fears of higher education leaders, who have become increasingly concerned that the Trump administration’s anti-immigration rhetoric and actions would have a chilling effect on international enrollment and their financial bottom line.
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Here are some leading examples of those tactics, which began almost immediately after Trump assumed the presidency.
In addition to slowing down visa processing, the president has issued executive orders to tighten controls over immigration and implement travel bans against several countries.
In one of its highest profile confrontations with higher education, the administration has tried to prevent Harvard University from being able to enroll international students, part of its pressure on the institution to bend to its demands on several issues. Even though those actions have been blocked — at least temporarily– by the courts, they have caused both current and prospective international students to grow increasingly alarmed about their prospects in the United States.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called for the deportation of foreign university students who “abuse our hospitality” or engage in a variety of other activities that Rubio has condemned.
The Department of Homeland Security has threatened the legal status of international students at scores of universities before lawsuits around the country have largely stopped the attempted deportations, forcing the administration to back down at least for now.
In May, Joseph Edlow, Trump’s choice to head up the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, testified before a congressional committee that he favored ending the optional practical training program, an avenue that most business leaders and educators believe is key to helping recruit and retain international talent.
A call for changes
NAFSA called on the State Department to make two changes to mitigate the predicted damage:
- “Provide expedited visa appointments and processing for all F-1 and M-1 students and J-1 exchange visitor visa applicants.”
- “Exempt F and M students as well as J exchange visitors from the travel restrictions currently banning the entry of nationals from 19 countries while maintaining background checks and vetting required for visa issuance.”
In a news release, Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA, said the organization’s analysis was “the first to calculate the potential economic impact of fewer international students on cities and towns across the country,” and that it “should serve as a clarion call to the State Department that it must act to ensure international students and scholars are able to arrive on U.S. campuses this fall.”
Describing the immediate consequences as “just the tip of the iceberg,” Aw went on to say that “international students drive innovation, advance America’s global competitiveness, and create research and academic opportunities in our local colleges that will benefit our country for generations. For the United States to succeed in the global economy, we must keep our doors open to students from around the world.”
