Short on time? Here are the highlights:

• Seventy percent of UK universities report declining international postgraduate enrolments
• As in other Big Four destinations, the rejection rate for South Asian students is very high
• Universities are adjusting their recruiting in some key markets to avoid falling into the UK government’s upcoming “amber zone” (for visa refusal rates exceeding 4%)

Of universities in the UK surveyed recently by the British Universities International Liaison Association (BUILA), 7 in 10 reported declines in international postgraduate students in January 2026 compared with January 2025. Across the sample, the average was a -31% reduction in students coming for postgrad programmes.

Enrolments were especially down of students from “high-risk” markets (i.e., markets where a high level of fraudulent applications or non-compliance with visa rules are expected). More than 8 in 10 universities reported declines from Pakistan, with an average reduction of 75%. Enrolments were also down significantly from India and Bangladesh.

What’s behind the decline?

As we are seeing across the other Big Four countries (Australia, Canada, and the US), visa rejections by the government – as well as anticipated visa rejections on the part of universities – are disproportionately affecting students from the Global South.

In June, the government will introduce a compliance regime in which universities that do not maintain a visa refusal rate of under 4% will be marked “amber” (as opposed to green) and prevented from increasing their international enrolments. This is fuelling many universities to adjust their recruiting in emerging markets. About a third said they had stopped recruiting in some markets and the same proportion said they now ask for higher deposits or conduct more rigorous financial checks.

At the same time, 6 in 10 universities reported that they experienced more visa rejections in January 2026 than in January 2025, and many were concerned about the reasons for this:

• 41% cited unexplained delays or interview scheduling problems;
• Over a third cited less convincing reasons for refusals that were inconsistent with applicant quality.

It is fair to say that genuine students in high-risk markets face discrimination based on their nationality.

It is also fair to say that universities are caught between a rock and a hard place because they are naturally interested in remaining compliant with government rules. When they see the government refusing high numbers of students from some markets, it is a signal that recruiting from those markets may tip them into the upcoming “amber” zone.

BUILA says:

“[We are] urging the Government to use ‘amber’ ratings as an internal warning measure rather than the point at which recruitment sanctions are applied. And [we are] calling for the traffic light system to better distinguish between factors within an institution’s control and those driven by external or systemic issues, such as visa processing delays.”

Chair Andrew Bird adds:

“This survey shows universities narrowing recruitment simply to manage risk, at a time when they are also facing higher refusal rates from UK Visas and Immigration, delays and inconsistent decision-making outside their control.

The UK already operates one of the toughest student visa compliance regimes in the world, and our members fully support protecting its integrity. But the Government keeps shifting the goalposts. The proposed traffic-light system is being implemented far more harshly than originally intended.

If introduced as currently proposed, the new system risks significant reputational damage to our world leading higher education sector. It could deter genuine students from applying and signal a problem to global markets where none exists, at a time when competition for international students is intensifying.”

No choice but to turn to alternative destinations

Consider these statistics about the chances of certain South Asian student being approved for a study visa in a Big Four destination (and note also that in the UK in 2025, the average visa rejection rate was only 12%).

• In 2025, Indian students faced a 61% and 74% rejection rate in Canada and the US, respectively.
• Bangladeshi students encounter rejection rates of 51% in Australia so far in 2026, and almost three-quarters (73%) were refused by the US in 2025. In 2025, 36% were rejected by the UK (up 15 points over 2024).
• In February 2026, more than half (53%) of Pakistani students applying to Australia were rejected, as were 71% by the US. In 2025, more than a quarter (26%) were denied a visa by the UK (up 8 points).
• More than 8 in 10 Nepali students were refused in the US in 2025, as were 4 in 10 applying to Australia in February 2026. In 2025, 16% of applications from Nepal were refused in the UK compared with 2% in 2024.

As we have reported recently, these trends – as well as similar ones for African students – can only prompt a fundamental reshaping of global student mobility away from the Big Four.