Short on time? Here are the highlights:

• In response to Israeli and US bombardment, Iran is striking out at Western-linked targets across the Middle East
• The security situation has prompted many schools and universities in the region to move to online-only instruction to protect their students and staff
• The war is affecting students’ demand for study in the Middle East at this time
• It is also highlighting the risks of delivering transnational education far from home

The US/Israel-Iran war has touched down in several countries in the Middle East, and international educators and students are among the many who are suffering the consequences.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is bearing the brunt of Iran’s retaliation because of its close Western ties. The region’s most important education hub and the world’s second-largest host of foreign/joint campuses after China, UAE is currently a country where schools and universities have been told to close until further notice and deliver classes online – out of an “abundance of caution.”

In less than a fortnight, Iranian strikes in the region have at times stranded international students and tourists trying to secure flights home; led prospective students who planned to study there to change their plans; and rattled institutions considering or already operating branch campuses in Dubai and elsewhere.

A spotlight on the risks of TNE

The past two years have witnessed a spike in interest among Western and Asian universities in transnational delivery modes such as branch campuses, joint programmes, articulation agreements, etc. New interest is particularly high in countries where government policies are affecting students’ ability to get a visa or to afford the costs of studying. Higher entry barriers for students have cut deeply into new international enrolments in Australia, Canada, and the US, prompting more universities in those countries to begin or extend programme delivery overseas.

But as interesting as transnational education opportunities can be, they also come with significant risks, and these are being highlighted by the growing footprint of this war. Some foreign universities operating branch campuses in UAE and other Gulf States – or considering doing so – are reassessing their plans because of concerns about staff safety, insurance, and margin for losses and disruption.

Speaking to University Affairs about numerous Canadian institutions operating in UAE that have been caught up in the chaos, David Robinson, executive director of the Canadian Association of University Teachers, said:

“Clearly, the current conflict shows the risks facing universities in the region. There was always the danger of conflict that many institutions ignored. The illusion that the Gulf States were safe havens for Canadian and other foreign educational ventures has been shattered.”  

John Trudinger, a headteacher at a school in Dubai whose staff includes 100 Britons, told The Guardian:  “The shine has definitely been taken off. ” He said that his British staff were “deeply traumatised and really struggling to cope” with the war and that they have left and won’t return.

Ambitions on hold

The war has also cast a pall on Middle Eastern states’ ambitions to attract foreign educator investment and international students to the region. Maia Chankseliani, professor of comparative and international education at the University of Oxford, told Inside Higher Ed:

“Regional escalation is already raising the cost and complexity of internationalization for Gulf universities. It will prompt some partners to pause new campus commitments, intensify risk planning and make the higher education ambitions embedded in…national strategies more difficult to deliver on current timelines. There will be financial and reputational repercussions that outlast the immediate crisis, as in recent decades the Gulf states have positioned themselves deliberately as a serious site for higher education expansion, attracting branch campuses, research partnerships and internationally mobile students.”

A break in momentum

The Middle East – especially UAE – has been growing ever more popular among international students. Keystone Education Group reported that search volumes for the region were up +90% between March and June 2025, with the UAE accounting for about two-thirds of that surge.

India is by far the top market for universities and schools in the Gulf states, sending hundreds of thousands of students. According to agents interviewed last week by India’s Economic Times, there is significant concern among Indian families about sending their children there. Sanjay Laul, founder of the recruitment platform MSM Unify, said: “About one-third of our applicants requested contingency discussions – deferrals, alternate intakes, or secondary destination options.”

Adarsh Khandelwal, the co-founder & director of Collegify, said that much will depend on timing. He predicted “a timing shock – deferrals, remote starts, and rerouting” rather than a “Canada-style volume shock.”

However, Studyportals reports that at the start of March, search traffic on its sites for study in Gulf countries was down -43% from the pre-conflict peak, and that the decline is ongoing.

Volatility continues

For international students, agents, and educators, the war is yet one more example of the challenging environment for making decisions about study plans or business strategies over the past couple of years.

The opportunities of transnational education and alternative destinations grew more compelling as immigration regimes tightened in the Big Four. But the current crisis reminds us that safety never goes away as the top concern for families considering study abroad. It also serves to illustrate the significant risk of operating a school or university in another country without always knowing if student and staff safety is as secure as it is at home.

Speaking with Inside Higher Ed, higher education consultant Vincenzo Raimo noted that tensions in the Middle East tend to subside quickly once a deescalation process is agreed to, and that international educators are now very adept at pivoting in the face of disruption. Mr Raimo says the most likely lasting consequence of the Iran war in terms of transnational education activity is that there will be a slower rush to the gate among universities contemplating a new venture:

“[Any conflict] will mean greater board-level scrutiny, with leaders and governors seeking firmer assurance on scenario planning, duty of care for staff and students, and the implications for insurance, security costs, and reputation of perceptions of safety deteriorate.”